The OECD has lowered South Korea’s 2026 economic growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, a 0.4 percentage point downgrade that the organization attributes to global spillovers from the Middle East conflict, including higher energy prices and renewed supply‑chain uncertainty. Available reports indicate this revision represents the second‑largest downward adjustment among G20 economies over the past three months.

What the OECD announced

According to the provided source notes, the OECD’s updated projection cuts Korea’s growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points compared with its previous estimate three months earlier, bringing the forecast for the year to 1.7%. The revision was published as part of an international organization statement and has been reported by major economic outlets, including MK. The change reflects a reassessment of near‑term momentum rather than a long‑term structural judgment.

Why the forecast was lowered

The downgrade is tied explicitly to global economic disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict. The provided material links the downward revision to rising energy prices and renewed instability in global supply chains, conditions that can raise costs for businesses and households and weaken demand. The OECD’s adjustment therefore appears to reflect external shock transmission rather than domestic policy shifts.

How Korea’s revision compares internationally

Available reports indicate that Korea’s 0.4 percentage point drop was the second‑largest among G20 countries in the recent assessment period. At the same time, the OECD raised its forecast for the United States from 1.7% to 2.0%, underscoring that the organization’s country‑by‑country updates reflect varied regional exposures to the same global shocks. These contrasting revisions highlight differences in economic sensitivity to energy price movements and supply‑chain channels.

This revision by the OECD, reported by MK on April 1, 2026, signals a cautious near‑term outlook for Korea that policymakers and market participants will likely monitor closely, especially as global conditions evolve. Available reports indicate the change is part of a broader reappraisal of growth prospects tied to international developments rather than newly reported domestic data.